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Natural gas price evolutions in the main European marketplaces

This chart shows the monthly evolution of gas prices in the main European marketplaces between January 2015 and August 2022. The PEG Nord and the TRS are the former French indicators that merged to become the PEG in November 2018.  The TFF is the marketplace of the Netherlands, the EEZ is that of Belgium, the NBP is in the United Kingdom, NCG and Gaspool in Germany while the PSV is the indicator of the Italian market.

Source: Data GRTgaz (2022)

Analysis

Overall, the price of gas in the different European market places is very homogeneous, the indicators represented are globally correlated: i.e. they do not each evolve independently, they are linked.

 

Nevertheless, two easily identifiable peaks can be observed: the first is a strong increase in the TRS (fusion of the PEG Sud and TIGF) due to too low LNG imports in the South of France, a risen price of oil and a temperature drop. The second is a strong fall over a few months in the Gaspool indicator.

 

Finally, since 2018 the price of gas has been falling sharply, which can be explained by the fact that it is indexed to the price of oil, which has undergone the same variations. Initially this fall was caused by overproduction, then it was accentuated by the world coronavirus pandemic which caused a spectacular drop in demand.With the recovery of global economic activity, European prices have risen sharply and in a harmonized manner from mid-2020 to mid-2021.

 

Since the beginning of the second trimester of 2022, there has been a sharp rise in prices. This increase is obviously due to the geopolitical tensions and sanctions following the war in Ukraine, which have greatly disrupted gas supplies to Europe and therefore increased prices.

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