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European supply capacities forecasts up to 2040

Source: TYNDP 2020, ENTSOG/ENTSOE

Description

This graph represents ENTSOG’s forecasts for European supply capacities of natural gas up until 2040. LNG supplies do not differentiate the exporting countries. Algerian supplies are mixed (LNG and pipeline supplies).

Analysis

During the next 20 years, natural gas in Europe will mainly be supplied by Norway, Russia and through Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) importations. The proportions of these three import sources depends on market fluctuations and adaptation to the production of low-carbon gas. European natural gas production (around 1,000TWh / year - not shown on this graph) should decrease with the end of production in the Netherlands scheduled for 2023 and the gradual depletion of Norwegian and British reserves.

Expectations to LNG are very important in European energy strategies because it allows a wide diversification of supplies’ sources.

New infrastructures also contribute to a diversification of land supply routes by gas pipeline, as is the case with Azerbaijan or the future pipeline from Russia, Nord Stream II.

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