Forecasted evolution of consumption peaks for natural gas

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Description

This graph presents forecasts for the demand in natural gas at peak times as established by GRTgaz according to its reference scenario, with a breakdown between public distribution and industrial customers connected directly to the transmission network. High and low scenarios correspond to the evolution of centralised production of electricity and co-generation.

Analysis

Peak consumption is a criterion when sizing energy transmission networks. The peak allows for an evaluation of the maximum capacity a network must face when conditions of use are extremely intense. With regard to consumption that is very sensitive to weather (public distribution and residential-service), the most stringent conditions are considered established when the temperature adopted is the lowest that has been observed over 50 years (2% risk, hence the term “P2 peak”).

With regard to industrial consumption, except in a few specific cases, the maximum nominal power drawn by the industrial site is used. We assume that the consumption peak forecast changes in parallel with forecasts for volumes consumed. The total peak increase is therefore mainly attributable to power plants.

Source: Ten years plan for the development of GRTgaz' network (2017)